01 · Key findings
Six things the data says
- Supply is shrinking. Active credentials fell from 121,407 in 2007 to 87,746 in October 2026, down 28%.
- The decline is speeding up. About 0.85% a year from 2016 to 2025. 1.56% in 2025. About 2.5% annualized in 2026 so far.
- The entry level collapsed. Licensed credentials fell from 29,921 in 2006 to 5,850 today, down 80%.
- The profession is old. 66% are 50 or older and 23% are over 65. Estimated median age: about 56.
- Supervision is the bottleneck. Trainees need a certified supervisor. PAREA helps residential candidates but does not award commercial experience.
- The next boom will squeeze harder. Base case: about 56,000 appraisers by 2036. A 2021-size refinance wave would put about 240 loans on each one. MODEL
Sources: ASC National Registry; Appraisal Institute 2023 Fact Sheet (2022 survey); The Appraisal Foundation; CFPB and Federal Reserve HMDA data; MBA. Projections are modeled; see sections 06 and 07.
02 · Supply
Active credentials, 2006 to 2026
Credentials, not people. One appraiser can hold several. Trainees are not counted.
Show the numbers as a table
| Year | Total credentials | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 111,485 | |
| 2007 (peak) | 121,407 | |
| 2023 | 94,522 | ASC 2025 Annual Report |
| Oct 2026 | 87,746 | ASC live report, Oct 29, 2026 |
Certified General
+16%34,812 → 40,325. Commercial held up, helped by multi-state licensing.
Certified Residential
−11%46,701 → 41,571. Down 27% from its 2009 peak of 57,253.
Licensed (entry level)
−80%29,921 → 5,850. The pipeline signal: new entrants stopped arriving.
Sources: ASC year-end credentials 2006 to 2021 (ASC board packet, Sept 14, 2022); 2022 Appraisal Institute 2023 Fact Sheet; 2023 ASC 2025 Annual Report (which also gives 89,618 for 2025); 2024 and 2025 startbusinessbystate.com citing ASC (secondary source); Oct 29, 2026 ASC live credentials report, summed across 55 states and territories. Changes are 2006 to October 2026.
03 · Age and pipeline
An aging base and a thin front door
Age of U.S. appraisers, 2022
50 and older: 66.2% Under 50: 33.7%
~56 Estimated median age, interpolated from the brackets. The survey published no median. ESTIMATE
Years in the profession, 2022
- More than 15 years75.7%
- 5 to 14 years15.5%
- Fewer than 5 years8.8%
8.8% of about 70,000 is about 6,200 people. That implies roughly 1,200 new appraisers a year entered from 2018 to 2022. ESTIMATE
Earlier readings
2012 to 2014: more than half of appraisers were aged 51 to 65.
2015: the average appraiser was 51 to 65; 11% were 66 or older.
Sources: Appraisal Institute, 2023 U.S. Valuation Profession Fact Sheet (2022 survey of 26,446 professionals; 2,631 responses; margin of error about 1.88% at 95% confidence). Earlier readings: Appraisal Institute via National Mortgage Professional (2012 to 2014) and Working RE (2015).
04 · The bottleneck
Why supervisors are scarce
- Step 1Qualifying education
- Step 2 · The bottleneckFind a certified supervisor
- Step 3Log supervised hours
- Step 4Exam and credential
PAREA: the alternative to step 2
A virtual training program that substitutes for in-the-field experience. Built for aspiring appraisers who may not have access to a supervisor.
| Credential | Experience credit |
|---|---|
| Licensed Residential | Up to 100% |
| Certified Residential | Up to 100% |
| Certified General | Partial; no commercial |
Commercial trainees still need a supervisor. That is the case for the commercial track.
State adoption: about 51 states and territories recognize PAREA or are working toward it, per The Appraisal Foundation’s informal count, August 2025. A trainee cannot enroll until their state accepts it.
What narrows the door
- 2015
- A bachelor’s degree became the minimum for certification.
- 8.4
- Trainees per 100 credentialed appraisers in Minnesota: 143 against 1,694, December 2024. One state only.
- 66%
- Of the supervisor pool is 50 or older. The people who can train are the people retiring.
- 0
- National counts of trainees or active supervisors. The ASC registry excludes trainees. No one tracks the match.
Sources: The Appraisal Foundation, PAREA page; Appraisal Institute support, PAREA state acceptance; Working RE (2015 degree requirement); Minnesota Commerce Department, appraiser statistics Dec 3, 2024; Appraisal Institute 2022 survey; ASC FAQ.
05 · Demand
Residential mortgage loans, 2006 to 2027
HMDA reported Estimate MBA estimate and forecast
Show the numbers as a table
| Year | Loans (millions) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 12.8 | HMDA |
| 2020 | 13.4 | HMDA |
| 2021 | 13.7 | HMDA |
| 2023 | 4.4 | HMDA |
| 2024 | — | Estimated from CRA’s HMDA analysis (dashed bar) |
| 2025 | n/a | No figure |
| 2026 | — | MBA estimate |
| 2027 | 5.0 | MBA forecast |
Loans per appraiser
The squeeze metric. Loans are a ceiling; waivers and AVMs take some out.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin 2013 (2006, 2007); CFPB 2018 Mortgage Market Activity (2008 to 2018, 1-4 family purchase plus refinance); CFPB 2019, 2022, 2023 HMDA summaries and National Law Review (2019 to 2023, all closed-end); 2024 estimated from CRA’s HMDA analysis; MBA forecast, Oct 2026 (2026, 2027 single-family loans). Appraiser counts: AI (2006, 2023), ASC (2013, 2021). Per-appraiser figures derived.
06 · Projection · MODEL
Unique appraisers, 2026 to 2036 MODEL
Decline rates from the ASC record: slow is the 2016 to 2025 average, base the 2025 rate, fast the 2026 pace.
Supply in 2036
| Case | Credentials | People | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slow, 0.85%/yr | 80,600 | 60,600 | −8% |
| Base, 1.6%/yr | 74,700 | 56,100 | −15% |
| Fast, 2.5%/yr | 68,100 | 51,200 | −22% |
Base-case cohort model: share 65 and older rises from about 25% to 31%. Doubling entrants to about 2,500 a year grows the field to about 74,000.
Loans per appraiser in 2036
| Demand | Slow | Base | Fast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat, 5.0M loans | 83 | 89 | 98 |
| Normal, 7.2M | 119 | 128 | 141 |
| Refi boom, 13.5M | 223 | 241 | 264 |
The 2021 peak was about 190. A boom on base-case supply runs about 26% above it.
Method: start at 87,746 credentials (ASC, Oct 29, 2026), about 66,000 people at 1.33 credentials per person (2022 ratio). Cross-check cohort model ages the 2022 AI survey forward with about 1,230 entrants a year and lands near the slow case. All figures in this section are modeled, not reported.
07 · Read with care
Caveats, context and open gaps
Three honest caveats
Collapse forecasts have missed before.
In 2011 the Appraisal Institute warned of a 25% to 35% drop within five to ten years. Credentials fell about 12% from 2011 to 2021. The data supports steady shrinkage on an aging base, not collapse.
Automation cuts demand.
Appraisal waivers, AVMs and hybrid appraisals take loans out of the workload. Loans per appraiser overstate true appraisal demand.
The shortage is cyclical, the pipeline gap is not.
A workload surplus in slow years. A capacity shortage in boom years. A pipeline shortage every year.
Government outlook (BLS)
Property appraisers and assessors: 68,400 jobs in 2025, projected 70,700 in 2035 (+3%), about 5,200 openings a year, median pay $67,960 (May 2025). BLS counts jobs and includes county assessors. ASC counts credentials. The two do not conflict; they measure different things.
Professional organizations
The Appraisal Institute reports nearly 16,000 members at year-end 2024, and 11,041 designated members in February 2025, against 11,584 in 2004. Other published membership figures are disputed and tied to pending litigation, so they are left out.
Open gaps
- ASC’s own year-end total for 2024 (2023 and 2025 are from the ASC 2025 Annual Report).
- 2025 HMDA loan count.
- Any national count of trainees or supervisors.
- An Appraisal Institute age survey newer than 2022.
Sources: Valuation Review (2011 forecast); ASC year-end credentials; BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Property Appraisers and Assessors; Appraisal Institute Form 990 via GuideStar; Appraisal Institute President’s Message, Feb 19, 2025.
08 · Sources
Where every number comes from
Read October 29, 2026.
Supply
- ASC, board FYI packet, Sept 14, 2022: year-end credentials 1992 to 2021 · asc.gov
- ASC, board FYI packet, Sept 15, 2021: distinct appraisers · asc.gov
- ASC, Active Appraisers Credentials by State (live) · asc.gov
- ASC, 2025 Annual Report, Appendix C: year-end 2023 and 2025 totals · asc.gov
- ASC, FAQ: registry counts credentials, excludes trainees · asc.gov
- startbusinessbystate.com: 2024, 2025 totals (secondary source) · startbusinessbystate.com
- Valuation Review, The Aging Appraiser: 2006 count, 2011 forecast · valuationreview.com
Age and pipeline
- Appraisal Institute, 2023 U.S. Valuation Profession Fact Sheet · appraisalinstitute.org
- National Mortgage Professional, AI data on appraiser ages · nationalmortgageprofessional.com
- Working RE, M. Lance Coyle: 2015 age data, degree rule · workingre.com
Supervision
- The Appraisal Foundation, PAREA · appraisalfoundation.org
- Appraisal Institute support, PAREA state acceptance · appraisalinstitute.org
- Minnesota Commerce, appraiser statistics, Dec 3, 2024 · mn.gov
Demand
- Federal Reserve Bulletin 2013, HMDA: 2004 to 2012 loans · federalreserve.gov
- CFPB, 2018 Mortgage Market Activity and Trends · consumerfinance.gov
- CFPB, 2019 HMDA data release · consumerfinance.gov
- National Law Review, 2021 HMDA report: 2020, 2021 counts · natlawreview.com
- CFPB, Summary of 2022 data on mortgage lending · consumerfinance.gov
- CFPB, Summary of 2023 data on mortgage lending · consumerfinance.gov
- CRA, The mortgage market in 2024 (HMDA) · crai.com
- MBA Newslink, October 2026 origination forecast · newslink.mba.org
Context
- BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, Property Appraisers and Assessors · bls.gov
- Appraisal Institute Form 990 summary · guidestar.org
- Appraisal Institute, President’s Message, Feb 19, 2025 · appraisalinstitute.org
Projections are modeled by Supervisor Match from the sources above and are not forecasts by any cited organization. Supervisor Match research.
What next?
Looking for a supervisor? Begin at Start here. Certified appraiser? List yourself. Running a firm? Post a job.